U.S. real GDP rose +1.4% SAAR (vs +3.0% expected) in Q4 2025, well below ~3% forecasts amid shutdown distortion.

• Consumer spending increased +2.4% SAAR (slower than prior two quarters), with goods -0.1% SAAR driven by nondurables -0.9% and services +3.4% SAAR; health care (+$40.6B) was the largest contributor within consumption.

• Gross private domestic investment rose +3.8% SAAR (strongest since Q1), but residential investment fell -1.5% SAAR for a fourth straight decline while nonresidential investment +3.7% SAAR was led by information processing equipment (+0.65 ppts) and R&D (+0.25 ppts).

• Net exports added only +0.08 ppts to GDP as exports -0.9% SAAR and imports -1.3% SAAR both declined, with the smaller drop in exports offset by weaker imports.

• Government spending and investment contracted -5.1% SAAR, including federal activity -16.6% SAAR, the second largest contraction in nearly 15 years; workforce reductions alone subtracted about -1.0 ppts from GDP growth.

• Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew +2.4% SAAR (vs +2.9% in Q2 and Q3), indicating more stable underlying private demand than the headline GDP figure.

• Growth contributions remained concentrated in health care spending and AI-related investment, while real estate and nonresidential structures remained weak.