The Conference Board LEI fell -0.2% MoM in December 2025 (fifth straight decline), signaling continued early-2026 softness.

• The LEI declined to 97.6 after -0.3% MoM in November and -0.2% MoM in October, extending a multi-month weakening trend.

• Over H2 2025, the LEI fell -1.2% vs -2.8% in H1 2025, indicating a slower pace of deterioration compared with earlier in the year.

• Positive contributors included building permits and financial components, with the yield spread turning positive in November and December.

• Negative contributors were consumer expectations, ISM new orders, higher unemployment claims, and lower manufacturing hours, pointing to softer demand and labor indicators.

• The CEI rose +0.2% MoM to 115.0 after +0.1% in November and grew +0.3% in H2 2025, showing modest improvement in current-activity measures.

• The LAG edged down -0.1% MoM to 119.6 and was unchanged in H2 2025, slowing from a +1.2% gain in H1 2025, indicating fading momentum in backward-looking indicators.

• The Conference Board expects GDP growth of 2.1% YoY in 2026 vs 2.2% in 2025, consistent with a projected slowdown into early 2026.