Philadelphia Fed Price and Inflation Expectations Survey: Q4 2025

Mon, Dec 15, 2025 · 10:00 AM ET Source Next release · Nov 25, 10:00 AM ET

Firms lowered one-year-ahead price expectations for their own prices to 2.6% (from 3.3%), indicating softer anticipated pricing pressures.

  • Mean expected U.S. inflation fell to 3.6% (from 4.7%) and the median declined to 3.0% (from 3.3%), marking the second consecutive drop in short-term inflation expectations.
  • Firms expect compensation costs to rise 3.3% over the next year, unchanged from the previous quarter, showing stable wage cost expectations.
  • Reported price growth over the past year was 3.0% (vs 2.9% last quarter), remaining higher than the 2.6% expected for the coming year and indicating anticipated moderation.
  • Long-run median inflation expectations rose to 4.0% after nine quarters at 3.0%, while the mean fell to 6.1% (from 9.3%), pointing to mixed shifts in longer-term outlooks.