Philadelphia Fed Price and Inflation Expectations Survey: Q4 2025

Firms lowered one-year-ahead price expectations for their own prices to 2.6% (from 3.3%), indicating softer anticipated pricing pressures.
- Mean expected U.S. inflation fell to 3.6% (from 4.7%) and the median declined to 3.0% (from 3.3%), marking the second consecutive drop in short-term inflation expectations.
- Firms expect compensation costs to rise 3.3% over the next year, unchanged from the previous quarter, showing stable wage cost expectations.
- Reported price growth over the past year was 3.0% (vs 2.9% last quarter), remaining higher than the 2.6% expected for the coming year and indicating anticipated moderation.
- Long-run median inflation expectations rose to 4.0% after nine quarters at 3.0%, while the mean fell to 6.1% (from 9.3%), pointing to mixed shifts in longer-term outlooks.