Firms’ own one-year-ahead price expectations rose to +3.1% in Q1 2026, down from +2.6% in Q4 2025, indicating anticipated faster price increases.

• Reported price growth over the past year was +2.8% (Q4 2025: +3.0%), remaining below expected future increases and implying modest acceleration ahead.

• Mean U.S. inflation expectations held at +3.6% and median at +3.0%, unchanged and at the lowest level in over a year.

• Expected compensation growth was +3.2% (Q4 2025: +3.3%), showing stable wage expectations near pre-pandemic levels.

• Long-run median inflation expectations declined to +3.0% (Q4 2025: +4.0%), suggesting a softer long-term outlook.

• Long-run mean inflation expectations rose to +7.4% (Q4 2025: +6.0%), indicating dispersion in longer-term expectations.

Firms lowered one-year-ahead price expectations for their own prices to 2.6% (from 3.3%), indicating softer anticipated pricing pressures.

• Mean expected U.S. inflation fell to 3.6% (from 4.7%) and the median declined to 3.0% (from 3.3%), marking the second consecutive drop in short-term inflation expectations.
• Firms expect compensation costs to rise 3.3% over the next year, unchanged from the previous quarter, showing stable wage cost expectations.
• Reported price growth over the past year was 3.0% (vs 2.9% last quarter), remaining higher than the 2.6% expected for the coming year and indicating anticipated moderation.
• Long-run median inflation expectations rose to 4.0% after nine quarters at 3.0%, while the mean fell to 6.1% (from 9.3%), pointing to mixed shifts in longer-term outlooks.