Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): January 2026 (Final)

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is -0.1% MoM and 3.6% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY.
- The nowcast is based on negative contributions from transactions (-3.3 bps) and foot traffic & sentiment (-13 bps) while Census data made a positive contribution of 7.4 bps.

- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.0% MoM and 1.3% YoY, revised down from the preliminary estimate of 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY.
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is -0.1% MoM, down from the preliminary nowcast of 0.1% MoM.