The Chicago Fed CFSEC Activity Index fell -12 pts to -9 in January.

• The Manufacturing Activity Index increased 6 pts to 3, and the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index tanked -20 pts to -9.

• Respondents’ outlooks for the US economy for the next 12 months deteriorated, but remained optimistic on balance. 49% of respondents expected an increase in economic activity over the next 12 months.
• The pace of current hiring increased, and respondents’ expectations for the pace of hiring over the next 12 months were unchanged. Both hiring indexes remained negative.

• The labor cost pressures index increased, but the nonlabor cost pressures index decreased. Both cost pressures indexes remained negative.

The Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) Activity Index rose to -3 in May from -20 in April, indicating economic growth was near trend.

• The CFSEC Manufacturing Activity Index fell to -21 in May from -6 in April, while the Nonmanufacturing Activity Index increased to +11 from -23.

• 45% of respondents still expect a decrease in economic activity over the next 12 months despite a modestly improved outlook.
• Hiring pace and expectations improved but remained in contraction territory.

• Capital spending expectations declined further, with the index staying negative.

• Labor cost pressures were unchanged, and nonlabor cost pressures increased, though both indexes remained negative.