Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): January 2026 (Preliminary)

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in January is 0.1% MoM and 4.6% YoY, which would be an acceleration from growth of 4.1% YoY in December.
- December retail sales data has yet to be released, and the nowcast is set at 0.5% MoM and 4.1% YoY, slightly lower than the 0.6% MoM increase in the final December nowcast.
- The January nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+23 bps) and Census data (+14 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -25 bps.

- The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth in January is 0.0% MoM and 1.4% YoY (down from 1.7% YoY in December).
- The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.1% MoM as there was no change in prices.