The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose slightly to -0.28 in May 2025 from -0.36 in April, but remained in negative territory, suggesting below-trend growth.

• The CFNAI-MA3 (three-month moving average) fell to -0.16 in May from +0.06 in April.
• The CFNAI Diffusion Index declined to -0.24 from -0.03, indicating broader weakness across indicators.
• Production-related indicators improved, contributing -0.11 (up from -0.18 in April).
• Sales, orders, and inventories made a neutral contribution (up from -0.14).
• Employment contributed -0.05 (down from -0.02), while personal consumption and housing fell to -0.12 (from -0.03).