The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.3% MoM in November 2025 to 97.9, extending the mild downtrend in forward-looking conditions.

• The LEI decline followed a -0.1% MoM drop in October (to 98.2) and a level of 98.3 in September, indicating back-to-back monthly softening.

• Over the six months from May to November 2025, the LEI fell -1.2%, a slower contraction than the prior six-month decline of -2.6% (Nov 2024 to May 2025), suggesting the pace of deterioration has moderated.

• The main drags in 2025 were weak consumer expectations and softer new orders, highlighting continued caution in forward demand signals.

• Positive contributions in November were led by labor market related components such as initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing, partially offsetting broader weakness.

• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose +0.3% MoM in November to 115.0 after -0.1% declines in Aug-Sep-Oct, showing a near-term rebound in current-activity indicators.

• Over May to November 2025, the CEI increased +0.3%, slower than the +0.9% gain in the prior six months, indicating softer trend growth in coincident measures.

• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) edged up +0.1% MoM in November to 119.7, reversing October’s -0.1% decline, but was down -0.1% over the past six months after rising +0.9% in the prior period.