Firms’ year-ahead unit cost expectations fell to 2.0% in January, returning to the prepandemic average and signaling further easing in expected cost growth.

• Year-ahead unit cost expectations declined to 2.0% (from 2.2% previously), marking a continued downshift from the 3.8% peak in April 2022 and bringing expectations back to the 2017–19 average.

• Year-ahead unit cost uncertainty has eased since peaking in July, indicating reduced dispersion around firms’ cost outlooks.

• Firms’ sales levels increased compared with October 2025, driven by gains in medium firms (+0.6 ppt) and large firms (+2.8 ppt), while small firms saw a slight decline (-0.5 ppt).

• Roughly two-thirds of firms reported having active job openings they are trying to fill, described as the lowest share since the postpandemic job market expansion.

• Most firms reported the labor market is about the same as 12 months ago, consistent with a general view of stabilization rather than renewed tightening or loosening.

• Among firms with job openings, most vacancies were attributed to normal turnover, while roughly one-third were tied to expansion efforts, indicating hiring demand remains partly growth-driven.

• Small firms were closer to evenly split between turnover and expansion-driven openings, while about 70% of medium and large firms’ openings were attributed to normal turnover, pointing to more replacement hiring among larger employers.