Canada’s CFIB small business optimism improved modestly in July, with the 12-month index rising 3.4 pts to 50.9 and the 3-month index up 1.3 pts to 49.3, signaling a still-fragile outlook.

• Price increase expectations for the next 12 months fell to 2.7% in July from 2.9% June, matching January 2025 levels.
• Wage growth expectations for the next 12 months edged down to 2.1% in July from 2.2% in June.

• Hiring intentions remained weak, with more businesses planning layoffs than hiring (a net 4% are reducing staff vs adding staff).
• Insufficient demand was the top constraint, driven by tariffs and broader economic uncertainty.
• Only 6 sectors had long-term optimism above 50; agriculture and finance/real estate were the weakest at 39.0.
• British Columbia was the only province where long-term optimism declined; Alberta and Quebec hovered around 55.