Canada’s CFIB small business optimism inched up in September 2025, with the 12-month index rising 2 pts to 50.2 (back to the breakeven threshold), while the 3-month index slipped 2 pts to 44.9, highlighting continued short-term caution.

• Long-term confidence reached or exceeded 50 in seven provinces, led by New Brunswick (58.8) and PEI (55.8), while Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia remained below 50 and well under historical averages.

• Sectoral optimism improved in transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, and information, arts & recreation, while most other sectors saw slight deterioration.

• Inflation indicators held steady: firms’ average price increase expectations remained at 2.7% for the next 12 months, and wage growth expectations stayed at 2.2%.

• Full-time staffing plans remained negative, with 18% of employers planning layoffs versus 12% planning to hire, pointing to a weak labour market outlook.

• Weak demand was cited by 55% of businesses as a key constraint, while distribution challenges were reported by 20%, nearly double the historical average.

• Tax and regulatory costs (67%), insurance (66%), and wage costs (66%, up from 59% in August) were the top concerns, alongside a record 36% of firms reporting struggles with capital equipment and technology costs.

Canada’s CFIB small business optimism fell in August, with the 12-month index down 3.7 pts to 47.8 and the 3-month index down 2.6 pts to 46.8, slipping back below the 50 breakeven threshold.

• Insufficient demand was cited by 49% of SMEs as the top constraint, while insurance (63%), taxes/regulation (63%), and wage costs (58%) also weighed on growth.

• Price increase expectations for the next 12 months held steady at 2.7%, and wage growth expectations were unchanged at 2.1%.

• Full-time hiring plans remained muted, with only a slight net increase in intended staffing, while part-time employment intentions stayed negative.

• Only four provinces—New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, and Manitoba—posted long-term optimism above 50, while most regions weakened.

• Sectoral confidence slipped broadly, with retail, manufacturing, personal services, transportation, insurance, real estate, and finance lagging, while wholesale, professional services, construction, and agriculture showed resilience.

Canada’s CFIB small business optimism improved modestly in July, with the 12-month index rising 3.4 pts to 50.9 and the 3-month index up 1.3 pts to 49.3, signaling a still-fragile outlook.

• Price increase expectations for the next 12 months fell to 2.7% in July from 2.9% June, matching January 2025 levels.
• Wage growth expectations for the next 12 months edged down to 2.1% in July from 2.2% in June.

• Hiring intentions remained weak, with more businesses planning layoffs than hiring (a net 4% are reducing staff vs adding staff).
• Insufficient demand was the top constraint, driven by tariffs and broader economic uncertainty.
• Only 6 sectors had long-term optimism above 50; agriculture and finance/real estate were the weakest at 39.0.
• British Columbia was the only province where long-term optimism declined; Alberta and Quebec hovered around 55.