Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): December 2025 (Final)

The Chicago Fed’s final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in December is 0.6% MoM and 4.1% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.4% MoM and 3.8% YoY.

  • The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+32 bps) and Census data (+21 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of +2 bp

  • The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.3% MoM and 1.7% YoY, revised up from the preliminary estimate of 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
  • The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.3% MoM, up slightly from 0.2% MoM, as nominal sales growth outpaces price growth.

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