The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed business activity rising modestly in January, with the headline general business conditions index up +11.4 pts to 7.7 after dipping slightly below zero in December.

• General business conditions increased to 7.7 (+11 pts), returning the index to positive territory after a small December decline.

• New orders improved to 6.6 (+8 pts), indicating more firms reported higher demand than lower demand.

• Shipments climbed to 16.3 (+21 pts), the strongest reading in more than a year, pointing to a solid pickup in output flow.

• Unfilled orders decreased and inventories edged down, while delivery times were unchanged, consistent with limited supply-chain pressure.

• Supply availability slipped, with the index at -4.1, suggesting slightly worse availability than the prior month.

• Employment weakened, with the number of employees index falling -17 pts to -9.0 (lowest in two years) and the average workweek down -8 pts to -5.4, indicating fewer workers and fewer hours worked.

• Price pressures were mixed: prices paid held at 42.8 (still elevated), while prices received dropped -11 pts to 14.4 (lowest since Feb 2025), signaling slowing selling price increases.

• Firms remained optimistic, with the future business conditions index at 30.3 and about half of respondents expecting conditions to improve over the next six months; capital spending plans rose modestly (capex index +3 pts to 10.3).