UK manufacturing output was flat in the three months to July 2025 (weighted balance -2%, from -23% previously), but firms expect a modest decline of -6% in the next quarter.

• Total new orders fell -17% (vs 0% prior), driven by domestic orders (-16%), while export orders were unchanged (0%); firms expect total orders to decline further (-18%) into October.

• Cost pressures surged, with average costs rising +63% (from +48%), the fastest pace since Jan 2023; domestic prices rose +33%, and export prices +19%.
• Business sentiment remained negative at -27% (vs -33% in April), with export optimism at -26%; competitiveness in non-EU markets dropped to -23%, the weakest since 2005.
• Investment intentions stayed weak, particularly in buildings (-28%), plant & machinery (-15%), and training (-13%), mainly due to uncertain demand and poor returns.
• Employment fell -11% QoQ and is expected to decline further (-5%) in the next quarter, as skilled labor shortages persist.