UK manufacturing output volumes fell sharply with a net -25 balance in the three months to May, down from -2 in April and matching the steepest decline since August 2020. The decline is expected to continue but soften with a reading of -14 in the next three months.

• Total order books worsened to -30 in May, down from -26 in April and below expectations of a -25 reading.
• Export order books improved to -29 in May from the weak -41 reading in April but remain below the long-run average of -18.

• Average selling price expectations rose slightly to +26 (from +23) and remain well above the long-run average of +7.
• Output fell in 13 of 17 sub-sectors, led by declines in metal products, food & drink, and mechanical engineering.
• Finished goods inventories were stable at +10 (from +13), close to the long-run average of +12.
• CBI: “Sentiment among UK manufacturers seems poor, reflecting a combination of rising domestic business costs and US tariff uncertainty. Many respondents to the survey reported a reluctance to spend among their customers. Although there are some bright spots, notably aerospace and renewable energy, the sector as a whole is reporting that their order books remain weak, and this is expected to weigh on output volumes through the summer.”