New York Fed Business Leaders Survey: December 2025

Business activity in the New York–Northern New Jersey service sector remained deeply negative in December, with the headline Business Activity Index unchanged at -20.0, reflecting continued contraction with little month-to-month improvement.

  • The Business Activity Index held at -20.0 in December (Nov: -21.7), with 22% of firms reporting improved conditions and 42% reporting worsening conditions, indicating contraction remained widespread.

  • The Business Climate Index slipped to -44.2 (from -42.2), showing a persistently unfavorable environment, with 55% of respondents describing conditions as worse than normal.

  • The Employment Index stayed negative at -7.4 (Nov: -8.6), marking a fourth consecutive month of declining employment, though the pace of contraction eased slightly.

  • The Wages Index edged down to 23.7 (from 25.4), suggesting wage growth remained positive but modest amid weak activity.

  • The Prices Paid Index jumped +10.2 pts to 72.1, its highest level in three years, indicating a renewed acceleration in input cost pressures after prior easing.

  • The Prices Received Index rose +10.4 pts to 30.5, pointing to firmer selling price increases following last month’s slowdown.

  • The Future Business Activity Index registered -1.1, showing firms generally did not expect meaningful improvement over the next six months, with only slight anticipated gains in employment and continued softness in capital spending plans.