The US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell -0.3% MoM to 98.3 in September 2025, marking a second straight monthly decline and reflecting weakening expectations from consumers and businesses.

• The LEI contracted -2.1% over the six months ending in September, a faster decline than the -1.3% drop in the prior six-month period, indicating a steady loss of momentum through 2025.

• Negative contributors to the LEI included consumer expectations, the ISM New Orders Index, manufacturers’ new orders for consumer goods and materials, inverted initial jobless claims, and the yield curve, all highlighting softer forward-looking demand signals.

• Stock prices, the Leading Credit Index, and manufacturers’ new orders of nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft contributed positively, offering limited offsets to the broader weakness.

• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose +0.1% MoM to 115.1, with a six-month gain of +0.3%, down from +1.1% in the prior period; three of the four CEI components improved slightly in September.

• The Lagging Index (LAG) increased +0.1% MoM to 119.6 and was up +0.5% over the past six months, a modest deceleration from the +0.6% gain in the previous interval.

• The Conference Board noted that GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, with end-of-year activity pressured by tariff adjustments, softer consumer momentum, and disruptions from the federal government shutdown.