The U.S. trade deficit narrowed -10.9% MoM to $52.8 billion in September, the smallest since mid-2020, as exports rose sharply (+3.0% MoM) while imports increased only modestly (+0.6% MoM).

• Exports rose to $289.3 billion (+$8.4B MoM), driven by an $8.8B increase in goods exports, with nonmonetary gold alone contributing +$6.1B, underscoring its outsized role in the monthly gain.

• Imports increased to $342.1 billion (+$1.9B MoM), reflecting a small uptick in goods imports (+$1.7B), led by consumer goods (+$10.2B) and pharmaceuticals (+$12.9B), partly offset by declines in capital goods (-$5.6B) and computers (-$4.7B).

• The goods deficit narrowed -$7.1B to $79.0B, while the services surplus decreased -$0.6B to $26.2B, showing improvement concentrated in merchandise trade.

• Year-to-date, the total deficit widened +17.2% YoY (+$112.6B), as stronger import growth (+7.7% YoY) continued to outpace exports (+5.2% YoY), despite September’s improvement.

• The three month average deficit fell to $63.1B (-$2.1B MoM), with average exports up +$3.2B and average imports up +$1.1B, indicating recent softening in import demand.

• Real goods exports increased +4.2% MoM (+$6.2B), while real goods imports rose +0.7% MoM (+$1.5B), narrowing the real goods deficit by -5.6% MoM to $79.0B, a smaller improvement than the nominal decline.

• Switzerland shifted from a small deficit to a $6.6B surplus, reflecting a $7.1B jump in exports, while the deficit with China narrowed -$4.0B to $11.4B as imports declined sharply (-$3.9B).