Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): November 2025 (Preliminary)

Fri, Dec 5, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Next release · Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET

The Chicago Fed's preliminary nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in November is 0.4% MoM and 4.4% YoY, which would be an acceleration from growth of 4.1% YoY in October.

  • The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+21 bps) and Census data (+15 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negligible contribution of 1 bp.
  • The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is 0.4% MoM and 2.3% YoY.
  • The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.0% MoM as price growth is forecasted to account for basically all of the growth in retail sales.

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