Manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, and at the fastest pace since August 2020 – according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends Survey (ITS). Manufacturers expect volumes to decline at a similar pace in the three months to February.

The volume of total order books was stable at a historically weak level in November. Export order books improved relative to last month but remained well below average. Stock adequacy for finished goods rose, to stand above the long-run average.

The survey, based on the responses of 334 manufacturers, found:

• Output volumes fell at an accelerated pace in the three months to November (weighted balance of -30%, from -16% in the quarter to October), which saw the sharpest decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to fall at a similar pace in the three months to February (-30%).

• Output decreased in 13 out of 17 sub-sectors in the three months to November, with the fall being driven by the food, drink & tobacco, chemicals, and mechanical engineering sub-sectors.

• Total order books were reported as below “normal” in November (-37%, from -38% in October). The level of order books remained significantly below the long-run average (-14%). 

• Export order books were also reported as below “normal”, though to a lesser extent than in October (-31%, from -46% in October). The balance was also below the long-run average (-19%).

• Expectations for average selling price inflation eased in November (+7%, from +16% in October), to stand in line with the long-run average.

• Stocks of finished goods were reported as more than “adequate” in November (+16%, from +7% in October), with the balance standing marginally above the long-run average (+12%).