New York Fed Business Leaders Survey: October 2025

The NY Fed Business Leaders Survey showed a steeper contraction in October, with the Business Activity Index falling -4.2 pts to -23.6, its lowest in several years, underscoring persistent weakness in the regional service sector.

  • The Business Climate Index declined to -42.9 (from -40.7), as 53% of firms reported conditions worse than normal, indicating continued pessimism.

  • Employment softened further, with the index slipping -2.3 pts to -5.2, marking a second straight negative reading and signaling ongoing job losses.

  • The Wages Index edged down to 25.9 (from 28.2), showing modest but slightly slower wage growth compared with September.

  • Input cost pressures intensified, as the Prices Paid Index rose to 66.4 (from 63.2), while the Prices Received Index fell -5.8 pts to 26.4, suggesting weaker pricing power.

  • Capital Spending weakened notably, dropping -8.1 pts to -6.7, pointing to a pullback in investment plans.

  • Firms remained downbeat on the outlook, with the Future Business Activity Index at -3.4 and half of respondents expecting the business climate to worsen over the next six months.