Chicago Fed Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS): September 2025 (Final)

Wed, Oct 15, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Next release · Nov 6, 8:30 AM ET

The Chicago Fed's final nowcast of retail & food services sales (ex autos) growth in September is 0.5% MoM and 4.3% YoY, revised up from the preliminary nowcast of 0.3% MoM and 4.3% YoY.

  • The nowcast is based on positive contributions from transactions (+36 bps) and Census data (+23 bps), while foot traffic & sentiment made a negative contribution of -12 bps.
  • The nowcast for retail & food services sales (ex autos) price growth is confirmed at 0.3% MoM and 1.5% YoY.
  • The inflation-adjusted nowcast of retail sales is 0.2% MoM as the final increase in retail sales is expected to outpace price growth.

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