USA Monthly Budget Review filed

Monthly Budget Review: September 2025

Wed, Oct 8, 2025 · 2:00 PM ET Source Next release · Nov 9, 2:00 PM ET

The U.S. federal budget deficit was $1.8 trillion in FY2025 (-$8 billion YoY), while September 2025 recorded a $164 billion surplus (+$84 billion YoY), reflecting higher receipts and large education-program adjustments.

  • Total revenues in FY25 were $5.23 trillion, up +$308 billion (+6% YoY). Gains were led by individual income & payroll taxes (+$260 billion, +6%) and customs duties (+$118 billion, +153%), partly offset by corporate income taxes (-$77 billion, -15%).
  • Total outlays in FY25 were: $7.04 trillion, up +$301 billion (+4% YoY). Excluding timing shifts, outlays rose +$228 billion (+3%). Net interest exceeded $1 trillion for the first time (+$80 billion, +8% YoY).
  • Major program drivers (FY25): Social Security +$121 billion (+8%), Medicare +$72 billion (+8%), Medicaid +$52 billion (+8%), VA +$41 billion (+12%), Defense +$38 billion (+5%), USDA +$28 billion (+14%), refundable credits +$26 billion (+13%), DHS +$25 billion (+28%), EPA +$23 billion (grant disbursements).
  • Offsetting declines (FY25): Education -$234 billion (-87%) driven by -$131 billion student-loan modifications and lower program costs; FDIC -$63 billion and SBA -$32 billion also decreased.
  • Timing effect: Without FY2024 timing shifts, the FY2025 deficit would have been $80 billion smaller than FY2024 (i.e., a larger YoY improvement).

  • In September 2025, the budget surplus was $164 billion, more than double the surplus reported in September 2024 ($80 billion) as revenues were slightly higher and outlays considerably lower.
  • Total receipts in September 2025 were $535 billion, up +$8 billion (+2% YoY). Customs duties +$22 billion (+310%), individual & payroll taxes +$31 billion (+25%), corporate taxes -$45 billion (-42%).
  • Total outlays in September 2025 were $371 billion, down -$76 billion (-13% YoY), chiefly from Education -$124 billion; increases included Social Security +$10 billion (+8%), Medicare +$8 billion (+11%), net interest +$8 billion (+10%), USDA +$6 billion (+53%).
  • Overall, FY2025 saw stronger revenues and higher mandatory/interest costs, with education-related adjustments narrowing the deficit slightly versus FY2024.