The AAR Freight Rail Index fell -0.8% MoM in September 2025, its fifth decline in six months, and was -1.0% YoY, reflecting gradual rather than sharp weakness in overall rail activity.

• Grain: Carloads averaged 20,966 per week (+3.5% YoY), bringing year-to-date volumes up +6.0%, the highest since 2021.

• Coal: Shipments fell -3.8% YoY, the first drop in seven months, though year-to-date volumes remained +4.4% higher than 2024, aided by a rebound from last year’s export disruptions.

• Excluding Coal: Total carloads declined -0.2% YoY, ending a six-month growth streak, but remained +1.4% YTD and the highest since 2019.

• Chemicals: Volumes dipped -0.7% YoY, only the second decline in 25 months, while YTD carloads reached a record 1.29 million (+1.5%).

• Primary Metals: Shipments rose +2.3% YoY, their seventh consecutive increase; iron and steel scrap surged +18.4% YoY, with YTD scrap volumes up +9.4%, the most since 2011.

• Industrial Products: The combined category (chemicals, paper, autos, steel, ores, and minerals) edged up +0.1% YoY, marking a fifth straight gain and underscoring steady industrial sector resilience despite wider manufacturing softness.