Private sector employment fell -32k in September 2025, well below expectations of a 50k increase and the largest decline since March 2023.

• ADP released revisions that removed 60k jobs from the previous two months: July revised down -2k to +104k, August revised down -57k to -3k.

• Goods-producing industries lost -3k jobs, as gains in natural resources/mining (+4k) were offset by declines in construction (-5k) and manufacturing (-2k).

• Service-providing industries shed -28k jobs, with professional/business services (-13k), leisure/hospitality (-19k), and other services (-16k) leading the losses, while education/health services added +33k.

• By region, the Midwest saw the steepest decline at -63k jobs, while the Northeast added +21k, the West +15k, and the South +3k.

• Small establishments lost -40k jobs and medium-sized firms -20k, while large firms added +33k, showing resilience among the biggest employers.

• Job-stayers’ annual pay rose +4.5% YoY, broadly stable, with growth strongest in manufacturing (+4.7%) and large firms (+4.8%).

• Job-changers saw slower pay growth at +6.6% YoY, down from +7.1% in August, led by softer gains in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.