ADP estimates that US private sector employment increased by +63,000 (vs +45,000 expected) in February, while job-stayer pay growth held at +4.5% YoY, indicating a moderate rebound in hiring with wage growth remaining steady.

• The +63,000 increase in private employment marked the strongest monthly job gain since July 2025, signaling a pickup in hiring after weaker readings in recent months.

• Goods-producing industries added +16,000 jobs overall, led by construction (+19,000) and natural resources and mining (+2,000), while manufacturing posted a decline of -5,000 jobs.

• Service-providing industries accounted for the majority of gains with +47,000 jobs, driven primarily by education and health services (+58,000), while professional and business services saw the largest decline at -30,000.

• Regionally, employment increased in the South (+37,000), West (+19,000), and Northeast (+11,000), while the Midwest recorded a decline of -4,000 jobs.

• Small establishments accounted for the bulk of hiring with +60,000 jobs, including +58,000 at firms with 1-19 employees, while medium-sized firms shed -7,000 jobs and large establishments added +10,000.

• Pay growth for job-stayers remained unchanged at +4.5% YoY in February, indicating steady wage growth for workers who stayed with the same employer.

• Pay growth for job-changers slowed to +6.3% YoY (down from +6.4% YoY), and ADP noted that the wage premium for switching employers declined to a record low in February, suggesting reduced pay advantages for workers changing jobs.

ADP estimates that US private sector employment rose by +22,000 in January (following a downward revision in December), indicating subdued hiring momentum at the start of 2026.

• The softer January and downward revision in December (from 41,000 to 37,000) put the 3-month average at roughly +44,000, showing hiring remained modest despite earlier strength.

• Education and health services led job gains with +74,000 positions, standing out as the primary source of employment growth during a weak hiring month.

• Professional and business services shed -57,000 jobs, representing the largest sectoral drag on overall employment.

• Manufacturing employment declined -8,000, extending a run of monthly job losses that has persisted since March 2024.

• Service-providing industries added a net +21,000 jobs, while goods-producing sectors posted only a small +1,000 increase, reflecting uneven sector performance.

• Regionally, employment rose in the Midwest (+25,000) and Northeast (+17,000), but fell in the South (-10,000) and West (-11,000), with large declines in the South Atlantic and Pacific subregions.

• Mid-sized firms accounted for most hiring with +41,000 jobs, while large firms cut -18,000 positions and small firms were flat overall.

• Job-stayer pay growth edged up to +4.5% YoY (Dec: +4.4%), while pay growth for job changers eased to +6.4% YoY (Dec: +6.6%), indicating largely stable wage trends despite slower job creation.

ADP estimates that US private sector employment rose by +41,000 (vs +47,000 expected) in December 2025, marking a modest rebound in hiring after a -29,000 decline in November.

• Private sector employment increased by +41,000 in December, reversing November weakness and driven primarily by service-providing industries (+44,000), while goods-producing employment declined -3,000.

• Education and health services led job gains at +39,000, followed by leisure and hospitality (+24,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (+11,000), offsetting declines in professional and business services (-29,000) and information (-12,000).

• Manufacturing employment fell -5,000, contributing to the overall contraction in goods-producing industries despite small gains in construction (+1,000) and natural resources and mining (+1,000).

• Regionally, job growth was concentrated in the South (+54,000) and Northeast (+40,000), while the West saw a sharp decline of -61,000, largely driven by losses in the Pacific region (-59,000).

• By establishment size, medium-sized firms added +34,000 jobs and small firms added +9,000, while large firms posted only modest gains of +2,000, indicating limited hiring among the largest employers.

• Job-stayer pay growth held steady at +4.4% YoY in December, unchanged from November, suggesting stable wage growth for existing employees.

• Pay growth for job changers accelerated to +6.6% YoY (Nov: +6.3%), indicating stronger wage gains for workers switching jobs despite subdued overall hiring momentum.

ADP estimated in the November edition of its National Employment Report that private payrolls declined by -32,000, the largest monthly decline that ADP has reported since March 2023. The fourth monthly decline in six months was well below the modestly optimistic forecast of an increase of 10,000. The weak reading was further confirmation of a trend of deterioration in hiring demand that has been developing since Q2 2025. The three-month average dropped to below zero for the first time since the pandemic, falling from around 37,000 in July to 5,000 in October and now around -4,300 in November.

The details point to a broad-based decline across industries, with education & health services continuing to be an outlier:

• The private goods sector saw employment down -19,000 in November, led by declines in construction (-9,000) and manufacturing (-18,000). The manufacturing industry specifically has seen four straight months of declines, with the November drop being the largest in that sequence, for a total decline in private manufacturing employment of -30,000 in that period.

• The private services sector saw employment decline -13,000 in November. Within the services industries, the changes were more mixed, but the biggest declines were seen in information (-20,000) and professional & business services (-26,000). Offsetting the job losses in the rest of the sector were gains in education & health services (+33,000) and leisure & hospitality (+13,000). Excluding education & health services, the headline employment change would have been the worst since the pandemic at -65,000.

The segmentation by firm size shows that the decline in employment continues to be concentrated in small businesses. ADP reports that smaller firms lost a total of -120,000 jobs in November, while mid-sized and large firms both saw job gains of 51,000 and 39,000, respectively. This is a continuation of the trend we have seen over the last few months and confirms that the labor market is experiencing a cyclical downtrend where the economically sensitive parts of the economy are hurting the most.

ADP’s wage data also signaled weakness in the labor market. The annual pay growth of job changers has been tracked as an indicator of tightness in employment data, and it just saw its largest deceleration since September 2024, which, coincidentally, was when the Fed decided to cut rates by 50 bps. Job changers’ pay growth now sits at 6.3% YoY in November, falling from 6.7% YoY in October, the lowest reading since February 2021. The wage data also supports to narrative that small businesses are leading the labor market deterioration. While large and mid-sized firms’ wage growth (for job stayers) was between 4.7% and 4.9% YoY, wage growth in the smallest segment of firm size (1-19 employees) was just 2.5% YoY.

The ADP National Employment Report estimates that broad private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, beating expectations of a 25,000 increase and pointing to a rebound in hiring after weak readings in August and September. Additionally, the drop in employment in September was revised up slightly by about 3,000 to -29,000, a positive development mostly in that there wasn’t a major downward revision (which has been a feature of recent BLS reports). Most notably, the momentum from employment growth has clearly fallen away. The 3-month moving average has fallen further to just 3,300 from around 20,000 to 30,000 over the summer.

The private sector job gains continue to be fueled by strength in the service sector, while the goods sector sees little to no employment growth. In October, the service sector added 33,000 jobs, while the remaining increase of 9,000 was seen in the goods sector. The individual industries that stood out were trade, transport & utilities (+47,000), education & health services (+26,000), and finance (+11,000). There continues to be a softening in the business services and information industries, which may be a result of trends in AI innovation. Business services, specifically, has seen a -28,000 drop in employment in just the last two months. Another result worth mentioning is another small decline in manufacturing of -3,000 in October, after a -2,000 decline in September, suggesting that tariffs have still not provided a boost to manufacturing employment in the few months they have been implemented.

The segmentation of the employment gains by firm size was also very interesting in October. Large firms with 500 or more employees accounted for all of the employment growth during the month, adding 73,000. This increase was offset by declines in small- and medium-sized firms where employment fell -10,000 and -21,000, respectively. A similar trend was evident in the September data, where large firms added 33,000 and small- and mid-sized firms lost -60,000. These recent data points indicate that current economic conditions are disproportionately affecting firms more exposed to cyclical swings, implying that rate cuts could help stabilize labor market conditions.

ADP also provides an update on wage growth, but for October, this was less interesting. Specifically, it reported that annual pay growth for employees who changed their jobs and those who stayed at their jobs were both unchanged from the September readings of 6.7% YoY and 4.5% YoY, respectively. In general, wage growth has trended around these levels for the entirety of the year after declining more significantly in 2023 and 2024. The BLS data of average hourly earnings shows a similar trend with wage growth sticky around 3.6-3.8% YoY.

Private sector employment fell -32k in September 2025, well below expectations of a 50k increase and the largest decline since March 2023.

• ADP released revisions that removed 60k jobs from the previous two months: July revised down -2k to +104k, August revised down -57k to -3k.

• Goods-producing industries lost -3k jobs, as gains in natural resources/mining (+4k) were offset by declines in construction (-5k) and manufacturing (-2k).

• Service-providing industries shed -28k jobs, with professional/business services (-13k), leisure/hospitality (-19k), and other services (-16k) leading the losses, while education/health services added +33k.

• By region, the Midwest saw the steepest decline at -63k jobs, while the Northeast added +21k, the West +15k, and the South +3k.

• Small establishments lost -40k jobs and medium-sized firms -20k, while large firms added +33k, showing resilience among the biggest employers.

• Job-stayers’ annual pay rose +4.5% YoY, broadly stable, with growth strongest in manufacturing (+4.7%) and large firms (+4.8%).

• Job-changers saw slower pay growth at +6.6% YoY, down from +7.1% in August, led by softer gains in leisure/hospitality and financial activities.