UK manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to September, with a net -13% of firms reporting a decline (from -22% in August), and firms expect another contraction into December (-14%).

• Output decreased across 13 of 17 sub-sectors, led by chemicals, metal products, and mechanical engineering, underscoring broad-based weakness.

• Total order books were reported as below “normal” at -27% (from -33% in August), remaining far weaker than the long-run average of -14%.

• Export order books also stayed below “normal” at -32% (from -33% in August), significantly weaker than the long-run average of -19%.

• Selling price expectations eased further to +4% (from +9% in August), the lowest since October 2024 (0%) and well below the long-run average.

• Stocks of finished goods were reported as “more than adequate” at +12% (from +7% in August), in line with the long-run average of +12%.