NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey: September 2025

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s General Business Conditions index fell -20.6 pts to -8.7 in September, the first negative reading since June, reflecting a sharp pullback in activity.

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New Orders plunged -35 pts to -19.6, the lowest since April 2024, signaling a significant drop in demand.
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Shipments dropped -30 pts to -17.3, also the lowest since April 2024, pointing to broad weakness in deliveries.
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Inventories edged down to -4.9, showing continued modest reductions in stock levels.
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Supply availability deteriorated further, with the index falling to -8.8, while delivery times were unchanged.
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Employment was flat around 0, but the Average Workweek declined -5.1, indicating fewer hours worked.

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Prices Paid fell 8 pts to 46.1, suggesting slower but still elevated input cost pressures, while Prices Received held near 21.6, reflecting moderate selling price increases.
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The Future General Business Conditions index eased to 14.8, showing firms expect some improvement but with subdued optimism, while the Future Employment index fell near zero, pointing to expectations of flat hiring.