RCM-TIPP Economic Optimism Index: September 2025

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -2.2 pts (-4.3% MoM) to 48.7 (vs 51.8 expected) in September, slipping back into pessimistic territory after briefly rising above 50.0 in August, and now sits -0.93% below its 296-month average of 49.2.
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The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -0.6 pts (-1.3% MoM) to 45.5, remaining firmly below the neutral 50.0 level.
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The Personal Financial Outlook dropped -2.3 pts (-4.1% MoM) to 53.4, though it stayed in optimistic territory despite weakening from August.
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Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell -3.5 pts (-6.9% MoM) to 47.3, reversing August’s brief move above 50.0 that ended a 47-month pessimistic streak.
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Investor confidence slid -2.6 pts (-4.0% MoM) to 62.5, while non-investor confidence dropped -1.6 pts (-3.7% MoM) to 41.9, widening the gap between groups to 20.6 pts.
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The Financial-Related Stress Index eased slightly to 65.3 (-0.3 pts MoM), but remains 8.1% above its long-term average (60.4), signaling continued elevated stress levels.