RCM-TIPP Consumer Sentiment Survey

Data Sentiment

Source: RealClear Media Group
Source Link: https://www.realclearmarkets.com/
Frequency: Monthly
Next Release(s): May 5th, 2026 10:00 AM

Latest Updates

RCM-TIPP Economic Optimism Index: April 2026 2026-04-07 10:00
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell to 47.5 in March from 48.8 in February (-1.3 pts MoM, -2.7%), remaining below the 50 neutral threshold for a seventh straight month and signaling continued consumer pessimism relative to historical norms.
- March’s 47.5 reading is -3.3% below the 302-month historical average of 49.1, indicating that overall economic optimism continues to run modestly below its long-term trend.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -1.8% MoM from 43.8 to 43.0, reflecting weaker expectations for economic conditions over the next half year and remaining firmly in pessimistic territory.
- The Personal Financial Outlook dropped -4.6% MoM from 56.9 to 54.3, marking the largest component decline and signaling softer sentiment regarding household finances despite staying above the 50 neutral mark.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies slipped -1.3% MoM from 45.7 to 45.1, showing a modest deterioration in views on government policy effectiveness while remaining below neutral.
- Investor optimism edged down -0.3% to 59.6, while non-investor confidence fell sharply -6.4% to 41.0, widening the investor versus non-investor confidence gap from 16.0 to 18.6 points and highlighting a growing divergence in outlook.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index increased +0.8 pts MoM (+1.3%) from 61.6 to 62.4, standing +3.2% above its long-run average of 60.5 and indicating elevated financial strain relative to historical norms.
- Six of 21 demographic groups were in optimistic territory in March, down from eight in February, and only seven groups improved on the overall index compared to 18 in the prior month, showing a broader-based softening in sentiment across groups.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index increased from 47.2 in January to 48.8 in February (+1.6 pts MoM, +3.4%), staying below the 50 optimism threshold for a sixth straight month and remaining in the report’s pessimistic zone.
- February’s 48.8 reading was 0.66% below the 301-month historical average of 49.1, indicating confidence remained slightly weaker than long-run norms despite the monthly rebound.
- Investor confidence surged +9.7% MoM (+5.3 pts) to 59.8, while non-investor confidence edged up +0.7% (+0.3 pts) to 43.8, widening the investor/non-investor gap from 11.0 to 16.0 pts.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved +1.2% MoM from 43.3 to 43.8, signaling modestly better expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose +3.6% MoM from 54.9 to 56.9, marking the strongest gain among the index components and indicating improved views of household finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies increased +5.1% MoM from 43.5 to 45.7, showing firmer assessments of government economic policy effectiveness while remaining below neutral.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index declined -1.3 pts MoM (-2.1%) from 62.9 to 61.6, reflecting slightly lower financial stress but still sitting +1.9% above its long-run average of 60.5.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped to 47.2 in January (-1.5% MoM, -3.9% vs long-run average), showing slightly softer consumer confidence while remaining below the neutral 50 threshold.
- The headline index fell 0.7 pts MoM from 47.9 to 47.2, leaving optimism below 50 for a fifth straight month and keeping sentiment in the report’s “pessimistic zone.”
- January’s 47.2 reading is 3.9% below the 300-month historical average of 49.1, indicating confidence remains subdued relative to longer-run norms.
- Investor confidence weakened -9.0% MoM (-5.4 pts) to 54.5, while non-investor confidence rose +4.1% (+1.7 pts) to 43.5, narrowing the investor/non-investor gap from 18.1 to 11.0 pts.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -2.5% MoM from 44.4 to 43.3, indicating softer expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose +1.7% MoM from 54.0 to 54.9, the only one of the three major components to improve in January.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell -4.2% MoM from 45.4 to 43.5, pointing to weaker assessments of government economic policy effectiveness.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index declined -2.0% MoM (-1.3 pts) from 64.2 to 62.9, signaling slightly easing financial strain, though stress remained +4.0% above the long-run average of 60.5.
- Demographic breadth weakened: 7 of 21 groups were above 50 in January (vs 6 in December), but only 9 groups improved (vs 21 improving in December), showing less broad-based momentum.
Source
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose to 47.9 in December (from 43.9 in November), marking a solid 9.1% MoM gain but remaining below the neutral 50 threshold for the fourth straight month.
- The index is 2.5% below its long-run average of 49.1, indicating confidence has improved but remains weaker than typical historical levels.
- Investor confidence increased to 59.9 (+1.3 pts, +2.2% MoM), while non-investor confidence rose to 41.8 (+3.8 pts, +9.1%), narrowing the gap between the two groups.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved to 44.4 (+4.4 pts, +11.0%), showing firmer expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook climbed to 54.0 (+3.4 pts, +6.7%), remaining the strongest of the three subcomponents and signaling improving sentiment toward household finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies rose to 45.4 (+4.3 pts, +10.5%), its second consecutive monthly gain.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index declined to 64.2 (-1.0 pt, -1.5%), though it remained 6.2% above the long-term average of 60.5, indicating elevated but slightly easing financial strain.
- Six of 21 demographic groups were optimistic (vs. four in November), while all 21 groups saw MoM improvement, showing broad-based gains in sentiment across age, gender, race, and education categories.
Source
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -4.4 pts (-9.1% MoM) to 43.9 in November 2025, marking its third straight month below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling deepening consumer pessimism. The index now stands 10.7% below its long-term average of 49.2.
- Investor confidence dropped -1.9 pts (-3.1%) to 58.6, while non-investor confidence fell -4.4 pts (-10.4%) to 38.0, widening the optimism gap to 20.6 pts from 18.1 in October.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -2.8 pts (-6.5%) to 40.0, showing further deterioration in expectations for near-term economic conditions.
- The Personal Financial Outlook fell -5.0 pts (-9.0%) to 50.6, remaining barely above neutral and reflecting weaker household confidence in future finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies slid -5.3 pts (-11.4%) to 41.1, its third consecutive decline after briefly rising above neutral in August.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index increased +1.9 pts (+3.0%) to 65.2, its highest since early 2023 and 7.9% above the long-term average (60.4), pointing to mounting financial strain.
- Only 4 of 21 demographic groups were optimistic in November, down from 6 in October and 10 in August, indicating a narrowing base of positive sentiment.
- Inflation and tariffs—especially food prices—remained top concerns, while the government shutdown and tight monetary policy were cited as key factors weighing on confidence.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index slipped -0.4 pts (-0.8% MoM) to 48.3 in October 2025, marking a second month below the neutral 50 threshold and signaling continued consumer pessimism. The index remains 1.7% below its 297-month average (49.2).
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell -2.7 pts (-5.9%) to 42.8, the weakest since late 2023, showing a sharper deterioration in short-term economic expectations.
- The Personal Financial Outlook improved +2.2 pts (+4.1%) to 55.6, reflecting a modest rebound in confidence about individual household finances.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined -0.9 pts (-1.9%) to 46.4, staying below neutral for a second straight month after briefly rising above 50 in August.
- The Investor Confidence Index fell -2.0 pts (-3.2%) to 60.5, while non-investor confidence rose +0.5 pts (+1.2%) to 42.4, widening the optimism gap to 18.1 pts.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index dropped -2.0 pts (-3.1%) to 63.3, easing slightly but remaining 4.8% above its long-term average (60.4), indicating still-elevated financial strain.
- Only six of 21 demographic groups were optimistic (above 50.0), down from seven in September and ten in August, showing a narrowing base of positive sentiment.
- According to TechnoMetrica, inflation and tariffs—especially food prices—remain top concerns weighing on consumer confidence.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -2.2 pts (-4.3% MoM) to 48.7 (vs 51.8 expected) in September, slipping back into pessimistic territory after briefly rising above 50.0 in August, and now sits -0.93% below its 296-month average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -0.6 pts (-1.3% MoM) to 45.5, remaining firmly below the neutral 50.0 level.
- The Personal Financial Outlook dropped -2.3 pts (-4.1% MoM) to 53.4, though it stayed in optimistic territory despite weakening from August.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies fell -3.5 pts (-6.9% MoM) to 47.3, reversing August’s brief move above 50.0 that ended a 47-month pessimistic streak.
- Investor confidence slid -2.6 pts (-4.0% MoM) to 62.5, while non-investor confidence dropped -1.6 pts (-3.7% MoM) to 41.9, widening the gap between groups to 20.6 pts.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index eased slightly to 65.3 (-0.3 pts MoM), but remains 8.1% above its long-term average (60.4), signaling continued elevated stress levels.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 4.7% MoM to 50.9 in August, ending a five-month streak in pessimistic territory and rising above its 295-month average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved to 46.1 from 44.5 (+3.6% MoM), though it remained below the neutral 50.0 mark.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose to 55.7 from 54.0 (+3.1% MoM), staying in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies jumped to 50.8 from 47.3 (+7.4% MoM), breaking a 47-month streak below 50.0.
- Investor confidence surged to 65.1 (+13.2% MoM), a 48-month high, while non-investor sentiment edged up to 43.5 (+0.5% MoM).
- The Financial-Related Stress Index increased to 65.6 from 61.2 (+7.2% MoM), 8.6% above its long-term average, indicating elevated stress levels.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -1.2% MoM to 48.6 in July, marking its fifth straight month in pessimistic territory and falling below the long-term average of 49.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined -1.3% MoM to 44.5, staying in pessimistic territory.
- The Personal Financial Outlook edged up 0.4% MoM to 54.0, remaining in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies dropped -2.7% MoM to 47.3, marking the 47th consecutive pessimistic reading.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index eased -2.9% MoM to 61.2, the lowest since January and 1.4% above its long-term average.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose 2.7% MoM to 49.2 in June, the highest reading since February, but remained in pessimistic territory for the fourth straight month.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook improved 3.4% MoM to 45.1, up from 43.6 in May.
- The Personal Financial Outlook rose 2.5% MoM to 53.8, remaining in optimistic territory.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged up 2.1% MoM to 48.6, still below the neutral 50.0 mark for 46 consecutive months.
- The Financial-Related Stress Index dropped -3.7 pts to 63.0, the lowest since September 2023 but still 4.4% above its long-term average.
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The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined -2.4% MoM to 47.9 in May, marking the third straight month in pessimistic territory and a reading below expectations of an increase to 50.2.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook fell -3.1% MoM to 43.6, while the Personal Financial Outlook dropped -5.4% MoM to 52.5.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies improved slightly to 47.6, up 1.9% MoM, but remained below 50.0 for the 45th consecutive month.
- Financial-Related Stress Index jumped 4.7% MoM to 66.7, well above the long-term average of 60.3 and the highest since October 2023.
- Investor confidence eased -0.8% to 60.4, while non-investor sentiment fell more sharply by -4.2% to 40.9.
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