The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) edged down -0.1% MoM to 98.7 in July 2025, extending its six-month decline to -2.7% and triggering another recession signal.

• June’s LEI was revised to -0.3% MoM, with pessimistic consumer expectations and weak new orders offsetting support from stock prices and lower jobless claims.

• The six-month contraction of -2.7% (Jan–Jul 2025) was steeper than the prior -1.0% decline (Jul 2024–Jan 2025).

• The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose +0.2% MoM to 114.9, with all components except industrial production improving; CEI is up +0.9% in H1 2025.

• The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) was flat at 119.9, but its six-month growth turned positive at +0.9%, reversing a -0.1% decline in the prior period.

• The Conference Board expects US GDP growth at +1.6% in 2025, though tariffs are projected to weigh on activity in H2 and slow growth to 1.3% in 2026.