Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey: August 2025

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s General Activity Index dropped sharply to -0.3 in August from 15.9 in July, with new orders turning negative and shipments weakening, signaling a loss of momentum.

  • New Orders fell 20 pts to -1.9, the first negative reading since April, while Shipments dropped to 4.5, erasing last month’s gains.

  • The Employment Index eased to 5.9 (from 10.3) but still indicated modest job growth; the Average Workweek rose to 4.7.

  • Prices Paid surged 8 pts to 66.8, the highest since May 2022, while Prices Received edged up to 36.1, showing continued price pressures.

  • Firms expect their own prices to rise 4.1% over the next year (vs 3.8% in May), while wage/benefit costs are expected to grow 3.5% (down from 4.0%).

  • Future expectations strengthened, with the Future General Activity Index up to 25.0, and New Orders (39.2), Shipments (40.3), and Capital Expenditures (38.4) all at multi-month highs.