UK Employment: July 2025 Report
The UK added 134k jobs in the three months to May, up from 89k jobs added in the three months to April and well ahead of expectations of a 46k increase.
- The unemployment rate increased another 0.1 ppts to 4.7% (vs 4.6% expected) and is up 0.2 ppts in the last three months.
- The total number of unemployed has increased 98k in the three months to May and is up 124k YoY.
- The economic inactivity rate is down -0.4 ppts to 21.0% in the three months to May and is down -1.1 ppts over the last year.
- While unemployment has increased, the redundancy rate is actually down -0.1 to 3.9 in the three months to May.
The total number of job openings fell again, dropping -56k or -7.2% MoM in the three months to June to 727k, the lowest since April 2021.
- The total number of vacancies has dropped by an estimated 573k since its peak in March to May 2022.
- The number of unemployed people per vacancy was 2.3 in March to May 2025; this is up from 2.0 in the previous quarter (December 2024 to February 2025).
Total pay growth in May was 5.0% YoY (vs 5.0% YoY expected), down significantly from 5.4% YoY in April and the lowest since September 2024.
- Regular pay growth also eased to 5.0% YoY (vs 4.9% YoY expected) in May, down from 5.3% YoY in April and the lowest since June 2022.
- Regular pay growth in the private sector eased to 4.9% YoY (from 5.2% YoY), the lowest since February 2022.
- Regular pay growth in the public sector saw a smaller deceleration to 5.5% YoY (from 5.6% YoY).
The early estimate of payroll employment in June indicates a decline of -41k in June, a larger drop than the -25k decline seen in May (revised up from -10.9k initial estimate).
- This would be a decline of -178k over the last year, or a -0.6% YoY drop.
- The flash estimate of median pay growth for June is 5.6% YoY, down from the estimate of 5.7% YoY in May.