The NY Fed median inflation expectations were mostly unchanged in February with a small increase in the short-term.

• The median 1-year ahead inflation expectation was up 0.1 ppts to 3.1%, the highest since May 2024.
• The median 3-year and 5-year ahead inflation expectation rates were both unchanged at 3.0%.

Consumers expected unemployment to get significantly worse in February, but they were more secure in their own job prospects.

• Mean unemployment expectations jumped 5.4 ppts to 39.4%, its highest reading since September 2023.
• The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months decreased by just 0.1 ppt to 14.1%. The mean probability of leaving one’s job voluntarily (expected quit rate) in the next 12 months decreased by 2.3 ppts to 17.6%, its lowest reading since July 2023. The decrease in the expected quit rate was broad-based across education and income groups.
• The mean perceived probability of finding a job in the next three months if one’s current job was lost decreased by -0.3 ppt to 51.2%, remaining below its trailing 12-month average of 52.5%.

The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months increased by 1.3 ppt to 14.6 percent, its highest level since April 2020.