The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations median inflation expectations measures were mixed in December. The 1-year ahead expected inflation rate was unchanged at 3.0%. The movement was in longer-term measures: the 3-year ahead expected rate increased 0.4 ppts to 3.0% and the 5-year ahead expected rate fell -0.2 ppts to 2.7%. Inflation uncertainty has ticked higher over the last two months.

The mean probability of higher US unemployment remained near a 2-year low at 34.6% in December. Only October was lower in the last two years at 34.5%.

Household spending growth expectations over the next year ticked up 0.1 ppt to 4.8%. Spending growth expectations have been above 4% since the start of January. At the same time, the mean probability of debt delinquency over the next three months increased 1.0 ppts to 14.2%.