The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index fell -2.2 pts to 49.8, a drop of -4.2% MoM, a sharp divergence from analysts’ expectations of a rise to 53.1.

• Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had stayed in optimistic territory but slipped below the 50.0 threshold in March (however, it is still above the historical average of 49.2).
• The Six-Month Economic Outlook declined by -9.6% MoM to 46.2 in March, breaking a four-month streak above 50.
• The Personal Financial Outlook dropped by 1.3% MoM to 55.3 this month.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies declined from 48.8 in February to 47.9 this month, reflecting a -1.8% MoM decline. This component has been below 50.0 in the pessimistic territory for 43 consecutive months since September 2021.
• The Financial-Related Stress index increased 2.7 pts or 4.4% MoM to 63.9 in March. This is 6.0% above the long-run average which signals a slight but significant increase in financial stress.