Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: May 2025

Tue, May 20, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Source Next release · Oct 20, 8:30 AM ET
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The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing General Business Activity index rose 10.4 pts to -16.3 in May, remaining negative for the fourth straight month but showing some improvement.

  • The New Orders index fell -9.4 pts to -16.3, while the Sales/Revenues index rose 2.3 pts to -5.5.
  • The Full-Time Employment index jumped 18.5 pts to 11.3, the highest since Jan 2024; however, Part-Time Employment declined -4.0 pts to -11.9.
  • The Prices Paid index fell -16.9 pts to 29.6, aligning with its long-run average, while Prices Received rose to 4.0.
  • Future general activity at the firm level turned positive, rising to 11.6, while the regional outlook remained pessimistic at -30.6.
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  • Firms expect 2.0% price increases for their own goods (vs 2.0% in Feb survey) and 4.0% growth in compensation costs over the next year (vs 3.0% in Feb survey).
  • Firms' general inflation expectations increased significantly. They now anticipate 4.8% inflation for all US consumers for both the next year and the 10-year average, up sharply from February's survey which showed expectations of 3.3% and 3.1% respectively.