Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: April 2025

Tue, Apr 22, 2025 · 8:30 AM ET Source Next release · Oct 20, 8:30 AM ET
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The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing General Business Activity index dropped -9.2 pts to -26.7 in April, the third straight negative reading and the lowest since May 2020.

  • The regional activity index fell -10 pts to -42.7, its lowest reading since May 2020.
  • The New Orders index actually rebounded 12.6 pts to -6.9, while the Revenues index fell -3.1 pts to -7.8.
  • The Unfilled Orders and Inventories indexes both pointed to larger contractions, down -6.6 pts to -13.1 and down -8.9 pts to -11.7 respectively.
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  • The Prices Paid index saw another large increase, up 10.5 pts to 46.5, the highest reading since February 2023, with almost 54% of firms noting higher input prices.
  • The index for future general activity at the firm level, which had turned negative last month for the first time since April 2020, declined -3 ps to -23.0.
  • The employment indexes, tracking full-time, part-time, and workweek, are all pointing to a decline.
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  • The median expected changes for non-energy raw materials costs and intermediate goods costs both increased from 1-2% in the January 2025 survey to 3-4% in the April 2025 survey.
  • Firms’ expectations of spending on health and nonhealth benefits dropped significantly indicating that services firms might try and offset higher costs of nonlabor costs by reducing labor costs.