Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: April 2025
The Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing General Business Activity index dropped -9.2 pts to -26.7 in April, the third straight negative reading and the lowest since May 2020.
- The regional activity index fell -10 pts to -42.7, its lowest reading since May 2020.
- The New Orders index actually rebounded 12.6 pts to -6.9, while the Revenues index fell -3.1 pts to -7.8.
- The Unfilled Orders and Inventories indexes both pointed to larger contractions, down -6.6 pts to -13.1 and down -8.9 pts to -11.7 respectively.
- The Prices Paid index saw another large increase, up 10.5 pts to 46.5, the highest reading since February 2023, with almost 54% of firms noting higher input prices.
- The index for future general activity at the firm level, which had turned negative last month for the first time since April 2020, declined -3 ps to -23.0.
- The employment indexes, tracking full-time, part-time, and workweek, are all pointing to a decline.
- The median expected changes for non-energy raw materials costs and intermediate goods costs both increased from 1-2% in the January 2025 survey to 3-4% in the April 2025 survey.
- Firms’ expectations of spending on health and nonhealth benefits dropped significantly indicating that services firms might try and offset higher costs of nonlabor costs by reducing labor costs.