The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index six-month annualised growth rate slowed to 0.2% in April from 0.5% in March, signaling a loss of above-trend momentum as external and sentiment-driven pressures weigh on the outlook.

• The Index is now flat compared to six months ago, with five of eight components weakening.
• Biggest drags came from consumer expectations (-0.23 ppts), equities (-0.12 ppts), and unemployment expectations (-0.10 ppts).
• Dwelling approvals and total hours worked also combined to subtract 0.10 ppts from the growth rate.
• Offsetting positives over the period included commodity prices (+0.24 ppts), US industrial production (+0.17 ppts), and the yield spread (+0.15 ppts), though all have lost steam recently.
• Westpac expects GDP growth to reach 1.9% YoY by end-2025; the RBA is expected to keep policy on hold at its July 7–8 meeting pending the next inflation update.