The six-month annualised growth rate in the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, lifted to 0.8% in February from 0.6% in January.

• The above-trend growth pulse has continued to firm a little but remains consistent with a gradual recovery rather than a sudden surge.
• Westpac expects GDP growth to track a slow rise over the course of 2025, reaching 2.2%yr by year-end. While that would be a material improvement on the 1.3% yr gain seen in 2024, it implies a relatively subdued performance by historical standards.
• Australia’s growth typically tracks in the 2.5–3% range, about 1ppt above population growth.