The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI edged down to 51.6 in February (Jan: 52.4), marking the weakest expansion in seven months as slower orders and export declines moderated overall growth.

• Output and new orders both increased but at softer rates, with production rising at the slowest pace since last September and new work only marginally higher as tariffs, high prices and extreme weather weighed on demand.

• New export orders fell for an eighth consecutive month and at the sharpest rate since April 2025, particularly reflecting weaker sales to Canada, showing continued reliance on domestic demand.

• Employment growth was minimal as firms showed restraint in hiring due to concerns about order book health and declining backlogs, indicating excess capacity limited workforce expansion.

• Inventories of finished goods were unchanged, ending a six-month accumulation phase, while firms also reduced pre-production inventories for the first time in seven months as part of cost control efforts.

• Supplier performance deteriorated with transportation delays and low stock availability, and purchasing activity rose more slowly than in January, indicating ongoing supply constraints.

• Input cost inflation remained elevated but below 2025 peaks due to tariffs and raw material prices, while selling price inflation slowed to a 14-month low as competitive pressures limited pass-through.

• Business optimism strengthened to an eight-month high, supported by expectations for product launches and expansion plans despite uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the broader political environment.

The US S&P Manufacturing PMI increased +0.6 pts MoM to 52.4 in January, marking a faster pace of manufacturing expansion broadly in line with the survey average.

• Manufacturing output surged at the joint-sharpest rate since May 2022 and the strongest since August, pointing to a notable upturn in production momentum.

• New orders returned to expansion but rose only modestly and remained below the survey average, indicating limited underlying demand growth.

• New export orders fell for a seventh consecutive month, with tariffs and trade uncertainty cited as weighing on overseas demand, particularly from Europe and South America.

• Finished goods inventories increased for a sixth straight month, though at the slowest pace of the sequence, reflecting production continuing to outpace sales.

• Backlogs of work rose modestly after four months of decline, suggesting slightly higher workload pressures as order inflows improved.

• Employment increased again, but only modestly and at the slowest pace in three months, showing cautious hiring despite stronger output.

• Input cost inflation accelerated due to tariff-related price increases from suppliers, while output charges rose at their fastest rate since August, signaling intensifying price pressures.

The US S&P Manufacturing PMI eased to 51.8 in December (from 52.2 in November), marking a slower pace of expansion as demand weakened despite continued output growth.

• New orders declined for the first time in exactly one year, signaling a mild but notable softening in demand conditions after a prolonged expansion.

• Output continued to grow but at the slowest pace in three months, as production remained solid even amid weaker sales momentum.

• New export orders fell for a seventh consecutive month, with tariffs cited as a key factor weighing on international demand, particularly exports to Canada.

• Finished goods inventories increased for a fifth straight month, though the pace of accumulation slowed sharply from November’s record, indicating production continued to outpace sales.

• Employment growth strengthened to its most pronounced level since August, reflecting firms filling vacancies in anticipation of stronger conditions in 2026.

• Backlogs of work declined for a fourth consecutive month, pointing to expanding labor capacity and limited workload pressures.

• Input cost inflation moderated to an 11-month low but remained historically elevated, while output price inflation also slowed to its weakest rate since early 2025, still reflecting tariff-related cost pressures.

• Business confidence remained positive but eased from November, as firms cited uncertainty around tariffs and insufficient new orders to replace existing demand.