Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey: February 2026

The firm-level general activity index fell to 5.8 in February (from 16.2 in January) while regional activity remained negative at -17.3, indicating weaker nonmanufacturing conditions this month.
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New orders declined to -9.3 (from 5.5) and sales/revenues dropped to 8.2 (from 24.8), showing reduced demand and the first negative new orders reading since October.
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Full-time employment rose to 10.6 (from 9.7) and part-time employment to 5.5 (from -0.4), while the average workweek jumped to 29.5 (from 9.6), indicating continued labor market expansion.

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Prices paid increased to 40.7 (from 34.5) and prices received rose to 22.0 (from 13.2), both above long-run averages and signaling stronger price pressures.
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The unfilled orders index increased to 12.2 (from 6.7), pointing to a modest buildup in backlogs despite softer incoming demand.
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Inventories rose to 9.7 (from 4.0) while inventory sentiment improved to 2.7 (from -3.7), suggesting firms were more comfortable with stock levels.
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Supplier delivery times fell to 5.6 (from 12.0), indicating slightly faster deliveries after prior supply delays.
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The prices received outlook climbed to 45.0 (from 38.4) and prices paid outlook to 62.7 (from 61.6), showing firms expect continued cost and selling price increases.
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The capital expenditures index declined to 12.7 (from 18.7), implying a slower pace of planned investment activity.
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The general business activity outlook for firms reporting higher activity still exceeded those expecting declines, reinforcing expectations of continued expansion despite the softer current reading.
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Future firm-level activity edged down to 31.7 (from 33.7) and future regional activity improved to 14.2 (from 10.3), suggesting continued expectations for growth.
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About 49% of firms reported customers becoming more price sensitive and 56% anticipate cost changes, with most expecting competitors to raise prices within three months, indicating near-term pricing adjustments.
