UK retail sales volumes fell sharply in June, with the CBI Distributive Trades Survey showing a net balance of -46%, down from -27% in May, marking the ninth straight month of contraction and one of the lowest in the last 5 years.

• Retailers expect sales to worsen in July (-49%), and sales for the time of year were rated as poor (-37% in June, -38% expected in July).
• Retail orders from suppliers dropped to -51%, the steepest decline since December 2023; orders are expected to fall -53% in July.
• Online sales growth slowed to +6% (from +37%) and is expected to inch up to +8% in July.

• Total distribution sales (retail, wholesale, motor trades) fell -39% YoY in June; July forecast at -42%, around the lowest in the last 5 years.
• Retail stock levels relative to expected demand rose to +26% (from +12%), exceeding the long-run average of +17%.
• Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined in the year to June at the fastest pace since December 2023 (-51% from -41% in May). Retailers anticipate orders will fall at a broadly similar rate next month (-53%).
• Retail stock volumes in relation to expected demand rose in June (+26% from +12% in May; long-run average of +17%) and are set to remain elevated in July (+27%).
• Motor trade sales volumes contracted in the year to June (-37% from -65% in May). The decline in sales is anticipated to continue in July (-34%).