GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in the three months to October. The contraction was broad-based, with zero growth in services and falling activity in production, construction, and agriculture.

• On a monthly basis, GDP fell by 0.1 per cent in October. GDP has now been falling in every month since June. Services contracted by 0.3 per cent while construction fell by 0.6 per cent – its sharpest contraction in a year-and-a-half. Growth in the production sector offset some of these effects, reporting 1.1 per cent growth for the month.
• Survey data indicates ongoing weakness in November, with businesses reporting that pre-Budget uncertainty resulted in delayed investment and weakened consumer sentiment. The upshot is that conditions could improve in December now that the Budget has passed.
• Following the poor start to the quarter, we expect GDP to show no growth in the fourth quarter, underpinned by stagnation in services and falling GDP in production, construction, and agriculture.