Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung from a -$6.4 billion deficit in August to a small +$153 million surplus in September, as exports jumped 6.3% MoM while imports fell -4.1%, marking one of the strongest opposing monthly shifts in recent years.

• Exports rebounded 6.3% MoM after a -3.2% drop in August, the largest rise since February 2024; gains spanned 9 of 11 product sections and were led by metal and non-metallic mineral products (+22.7% MoM), driven by unwrought gold shipments (+30.2% MoM).

• Excluding precious metals, exports still rose +4.5% MoM, pointing to broad-based strength; real export volumes increased +4.1% MoM.

• Energy product exports rose 5.8% MoM, with crude oil up 5.8% MoM for a fifth consecutive monthly gain, helped by higher volumes and rising production.

• Aircraft and transportation equipment exports surged 23.4% MoM, including a 72.3% increase in aircraft, reflecting stronger quarter-end deliveries, especially private jets to the US.

• Imports declined -4.1% MoM, with metal and non-metallic mineral products down -27.8% MoM as unwrought gold imports plunged -72.5%, reversing August’s spike; excluding precious metals, imports fell -1.5% MoM, and real import volumes fell -3.3%.

• Consumer goods imports fell -6.0% MoM, led by pharmaceuticals (-13.8%) after two months of gains, driven by lower shipments from Europe.

• Trade with the US improved as exports to the US rose +4.6% MoM and imports fell -1.7% MoM, widening Canada’s surplus with the US to $8.6 billion, the largest since February 2025.

• Exports to non-US markets surged +11.0% MoM (notably to Switzerland, Germany, and Singapore), while imports from non-US partners fell -7.3% MoM, narrowing the non-US deficit from a record -$12.4 billion to -$8.5 billion.

• In Q3, exports rose +2.4% following a sharp drop in Q2, while imports fell -2.0%; in real terms, exports increased +0.8% and imports declined -2.6%, helping narrow the quarterly deficit to -$10.1 billion.

• Including services, total exports rose +5.0% and imports fell -3.0%, producing a +$327 million overall trade surplus in September, compared with a -$6.3 billion deficit in August.