The final estimate of the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51.0 (vs 50.3 preliminary) in November 2025 (-4.9% MoM, -29.0% YoY), reflecting continued strain from high prices and weakening household finances.

• The Current Economic Conditions Index dropped to 51.1 (vs 52.3 preliminary), down -12.8% MoM and -20.0% YoY, showing a sharp deterioration in assessments of personal finances and buying conditions for durable goods.

• The Index of Consumer Expectations edged up to 51.0 (vs 49.0 preliminary), rising +1.4% MoM but still down -33.7% YoY, indicating modest improvement in longer-term outlooks despite weak current conditions.

• Sentiment improved slightly after the federal shutdown ended, but overall confidence remained depressed as consumers remained frustrated by persistent price pressures.

• Households with the largest stock holdings saw a decline in sentiment late in the month as equity markets weakened, reversing gains seen in the preliminary reading.

• Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.5% (from 4.6%), marking a third consecutive monthly decline, though still above the 3.3% level observed in January.

• Long-run inflation expectations fell to 3.4% (from 3.9%), modestly higher than January’s 3.2% but signaling some improvement in consumers’ view of long-term inflation trends.

National Estimates Continue to Align With Views of Independents

November 2025 Update: Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations