Coming in below forecast, GDP grew by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter. This was driven by growth in services and construction, offsetting a fall in production output. GDP growth in the third quarter largely reflects base effects from uneven growth in the second quarter.

• GDP contracted by 0.1 per cent in September. The growth figure for August was revised down from 0.1 per cent to 0.0 per cent. The contraction in September reflects a decline in production sector activity, which offset growth in services and construction
• The average month-on-month growth rate in the third quarter was -0.1 per cent, consistent with weak market conditions reported across business surveys. However, the factors behind September’s contraction may prove temporary, as survey data points to an uptick in production activity in October, supported by the restart of production at Jaguar Land Rover.
• We expect GDP to grow by 0.2 per cent in the fourth quarter, bolstered by growth in the services sector. Elevated uncertainty among businesses and households continue to pose downside risks to this forecast.