The National Retail Federation today forecast that winter holiday spending is expected to grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023. That equates to between $979.5 billion and $989 billion in total holiday spending in November and December, compared with $955.6 billion during the same timeframe last year.

• “The economy remains fundamentally healthy and continues to maintain its momentum heading into the final months of the year,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth.”
• The holiday forecast is consistent with NRF’s forecast that annual sales for 2024 will be between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023.
• A primary contributor of overall retail sales growth is expected from online shopping. Online and other non-store sales, which are included in the total, are expected to increase between 8% and 9% to a total of between $295.1 billion and $297.9 billion. This figure is up from $273.3 billion last year. By comparison, last year non-store sales rose 10.7% over 2022.
• NRF expects retailers will hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers this year, some of which may have been pulled into October to support retailers’ holiday buying events this month. This compares with 509,000 seasonal hires last year.