Retail sales volumes continued to decline at a strong rate in the year to October, extending the sector’s downturn into a thirteenth consecutive month - according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. 

Next month, the outlook for the retail sector remains gloomy, with retailers expecting sales volumes to fall at a faster pace.  

Key findings included:

• Retail sales volumes continued to decline at a strong rate in the year to October (weighted balance of -27% from -29% in September). Sales are expected to fall at a faster pace in November (-39%).
• Sales for the time of year were judged to be “poor” in October, to a comparable extent to last month (-15% from -13% in September). Next month’s sales are set to remain similarly below seasonal norms (-17%).

• Online retail sales volumes grew slightly in the year to October (+4% from -24% in September) but are expected to contract at a modest pace next month (-8%).

• Wholesale sales volumes fell at a fast rate in the year to October (-31% from -30% in September). Wholesalers expect sales to decline at a slightly quicker pace next month (-35%).
• Total distribution sales volumes (including retail, wholesale, and motor trades) continued to fall at a firm rate in the year to October (-30% from -35%). Firms expect the pace of decline to quicken next month (-37%).
• Retail orders placed upon suppliers declined at a firm pace in the year to October (-28% from -36% in September). Retailers expect to cut back on order volumes at a faster rate in November (-42%).
• Retail stock volumes relative to expected sales softened in October (+14% from +24% in September; long-run average of +17%) and are expected to broadly hold at this position next month (+16%).
• Motor trade sales volumes contracted at a markedly slower pace compared to last month (-29% from -67% in September). Sales are expected to fall at a stronger rate in November (-38%).